Below normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle. I follow that convention here, though Im really calculating the inverse, meaning the noise-to-signal ratio. It's difficult for me to see a clear connection between this triple-dip La Nina and the frequent western U.S. atmospheric rivers. Alex Burkill, senior meteorologist at the Met Office, said: Its likely to be the warmest spell weve had at the end of October since 2014, when we had the warmest Halloween on record. That means forecasts will bust from time to time, and success or failure must be evaluated over many forecasts. Submitted by emily.becker on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 17:04, Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 18:30, In reply to It's hard to say without by emily.becker. Whether you are a fan of snow, here is the latest roundup of what meteorologists are saying about the weather in the coming months. Winter Weather Predictions From Farmers' Almanac - Simplemost The first day of winter and the shortest day of the year, officially arrives on December 21, 2022, but that doesn't always mean that the cold temperatures and snow storms will wait until then. I did just one set of analyses focused on one particular region with one climate model, and thats why I stated up front that this is just the start of the conversation. The new forecast, issued Aug.18, 2022, is pegged on the thought that La Nia is expected to continue through this winter before fading to near normal water temperatures next spring. Surprisingly to me, the SST correlation pattern did not project strongly onto the mean La Nina SST anomaly pattern, as one might expect if the dominant effect was a linear amplitude effect. The standard deviation of this set of values is 0.725 mm/day. below-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, signal relative to the noise of random weather variability, Stratospheric warming due to Tonga volcano, https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winte, Southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico. In the West, generally dry conditions will do little to ease the regions persistent drought. We cannot rule out the possibility that the model is missing some sort of predictable connection between a particular flavor of La Nia sea surface temperatures and Southwest precipitation. TUCSON, Ariz. (KGUN) March marches in like a lion! During this period, the prevailing winds continue to blow from the northwest or northeast. More. 10 day. All I can say is that I don't have any reason to rule it out as a contributor, and I think this idea will be explored more in the years ahead. But in general, AccuWeather is predicting a season of less snowfall on the Eastern Seaboard. The firm predicts temperatures that are normal to slightly below normal for nearly all of the country from November 2022 to March 2023. This year, La Nia is forecast to prevail for a third straight winter. Also, we have the March snowfall forecast data. It relocates the jet stream downwards between the two strong pressure systems, marked above by the blue lines. Besides the northwestern United States and the Midwest, we can see more snowfall potential over the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. Minimum temperature 2C. Below-average temperatures are forecast in the northern contiguous United States, stretching from northern Michigan to northern Washington state. Meteorological Winter 2022-23 Climate Summary There are also some hints of a cold event reaching down to the south-central United States. An official website of the United States government. Long-Range Weather Forecast for Desert Southwest Annual Weather Summary November 2022 to October 2023 Winter will be warmer than normal, with above-normal precipitation. Thank you for your question! This early winter, the Southwest had 65% more precipitation than normal according to this precipitation dataset, which is the second highest La Nia total since 1951. Fast, informative and written just for locals. For the first three months when winterlike conditions begin in earnest November, December and January abnormal cold is not expected anywhere in the country. Submitted by Scott Yuknis on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 04:55, In reply to About comments by rebecca.lindsey. Images by NOAA Physical Science Laboratory. This would likely bring a risk of chilly nights with mist, frost and fog in places, with some snow possible in any showers in northern and western areas, especially over high ground.. Tonight should be the chilliest for a while. (NOAA Climate.gov, based on NWS CPC data). But looking at the March snow forecast image below, we can see most of Europe having a lower-than-normal end to the snow season. Submitted by John N-G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 15:04. How harsh will winter be? Typically, the first influence of these ocean anomalies can be seen in the jet stream patterns changing. Most of the continent is forecast to have less snowfall than normal, except for far northern Europe. Note that even the most scientifically advanced seasonal outlooks cannot pinpoint what the weather will be in a particular place at a particular time this far in advance. So far, the storm season in the UK has been decidedly quiet, with not a single named storm featuring so far. The coldest periods will be in late November, mid- and late December, and mid-January. Colorado Avalanche Information Center forecasters need intricate knowledge of snowy layers that sit below the surface as they warn public of hazards and risks. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Winter Forecast 2022/2023 - November Update: Cold ENSO phase peaks, with its growing weather influence as we head for the start of the Winter . We can run multiple simulations in which the ocean is always the sameforced to match observed sea surface temperatures, including all La Nias from 1951-2020but the starting atmospheric conditions are very slightly different each time. Submitted by Stan Rose on Wed, 03/01/2023 - 21:45. You can see a strong snowfall anomaly over the Midwest and the Great Lakes, expanding over the northeastern United States. Southwest U.S. Newfoundland, Labrador; Nova Scotia, Prince Edward, New Brunswick, Quebec; Ontario; Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan; British Columbia; 2023 Summer Extended Forecast; 2022-2023 Extended Winter Forecast; 2022-2023 Canadian Extended Winter Forecast; 20 Signs Of A Hard Winter Ahead; Weather Lore; Weather History; Our Forecast Accuracy Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript And did tropical sea surface temperatures contribute? That storminess is not expected to slow in the eastern half of the country, with the almanac suggesting snowy conditions into the Northeast. And we can expect plenty of it this winter, according to the Farmers' Almanac, which recently released its 2022-23 Extended Weather Forecast. With the observations, I did try setting a higher La Nina amplitude threshold (DJF Nino 3.4 SST anomaly amplitude greater than 1 deg. Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. The February snow depth forecast shows continued increased snowfall potential over the northwestern United States and expanding over western and southern Canada. From the second half of next week onwards, milder conditions seem likely to push erratically north, with spells of rain and snow likely at times - which could be disruptive in places, at least at first. Official websites use .gov To solidify this conclusion, I continued my investigation by calculating how much the variations in the La Nia sea surface temperature pattern contribute to the variations in Southwest U.S. DecemberJanuary precipitation in the SPEAR simulations. Winter 2022/2023 snowfall predictions come together as the cold meteorological season is about to begin. As we discussed in this post, La Nina typically causes a reduction rather than increase in western U.S. atmospheric river activity. The circulation of the strong high-pressure system promotes the development of a low-pressure region over Alaska and western Canada. This latest forecast cycle interestingly shows more snowfall over the western United States and also the Midwest. More snowfall is also seen over parts of the upper Midwest. We see more snowfall over the northwestern and northern United States and southern Canada. Thanks for your questions. This calm outlook could well continue, with the Met Office putting the chances of this winter being 'windy' at just 5%. Even the wettest December-January event before this year, 1955/56, was drier-than-average in February-March, demonstrating that a wet early winter doesnt necessarily mean a wet late winter. We first have to take a quick look at the leading global weather driver for the upcoming winter season, La Nina. AccuWeathers official 2022-2023 U.S. winter forecast is rather bleak for snow lovers. The Majority of these Atmospheric Rivers have missed this area and only the last month has some of the area received measurable Moisture. AccuWeather's range for the Twin Cities is 75-124% of normal, which means it could be below average or above average. The February snow depth forecast shows the snowfall potential reducing further over most of Europe. August 2022 U.S. Climate Outlook: a wet Southwest Monsoon and a hot NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from the NOAA GFDL SPEAR climate model. It also shows some snow scenarios over the eastern and southeastern United States. Could the jet stream also have influenced precipitation amounts ? UKMO uses a different parameter than the ECMWF but correlates directly with snowfall also. Submitted by Mohammad Al-khateeb on Sun, 02/26/2023 - 03:19, Submitted by Aaron on Tue, 02/28/2023 - 10:46, What do you think of the recent University of Washington study postulating that this kind of triple year La Nia event may become more common and could in fact be the temporary result of cooling in the Pacific Ocean due to increased melting of ice and snow in Antarctica?https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winte, Submitted by Lois on Tue, 02/28/2023 - 11:22. The February snowfall forecast indicates continued potential over the northern parts of Europe. This is an active area of research and model development, and I know that there are many in my lab who are working on improving the representation of stratospheric processes in our models. 2022-2024 "Arctic Hell" Storm - Hypothetical Disasters Wiki An important global weather factor is ENSO. So, I agree that we likely can point to specific factors contributing to this unusual winter, and it would be worthwhile to carry out a detailed attribution analysis. For full-year 2023, it plans to expand flying as much as . If there aren't any climate researchers looking into this now, I'm sure there will be some soon!
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