Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Twitter Twitter Watauga has gone for. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. But both are worth watching. Their hopes are real. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. Will That Last?]. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. What, if anything, did we miss? We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president Seriously. But it's also not unprecedented. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election - WSJ Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Trump gave them hope. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. What are your thoughts on this article? Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. 11. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Website Updates Paused Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. "They followed through the whole four years. Lets find a coin, and flip it. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. 9. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. 10. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. 2020 Election (1210) [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. 2016 Election (1135) From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. hide caption. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. It is easy to gloss over this. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT.
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