Thailand, of course, has been an important security partner for the United States. Report Chinas rising military power and political influence is generating anxiety and suspicion among some of its neighbours and western powers. Utapao has been suggested as a permanent Southeast Asian Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) hub. This principled stand allows the United States to defend its interests without embroiling itself in the murky sovereignty claims at the heart of the South China Sea dispute. by Geoffrey Hartman Expanding U.S. access to Vietnamese facilities as described above could eventually render access to Thai facilities somewhat redundant, further weakening the institutional support for the alliance in the United States. The area marked with a blue line is based on the UNCLOS 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) relating to each countrys claims and the islands marked in green are the ones over which sovereignty is disputed. The main route to and from Pacific and Indian ocean ports is through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. The South China Sea is the gateway to access to the world ocean, the nexus for navigation as well as a security fence for several littoral states. In addition, it has proved oil and gas reserves, so the sovereignty of the disputed islands involves legal rights to exploit its resources. Giving ground on vital interests in Asia will not encourage greater cooperation on global issues. It can receive large aircraft (including C-17s and C-130s); it is close to a deep seaport; and it has infrastructure capable of handling command and control systems. The United States should continue to prioritize military presence in the Asia-Pacific at the same time as it invests in key capabilities, such as long-range precision strike, undersea warfare, cyber/space systems, and other capabilities that will preserve the U.S. ability to deter Chinese aggression. Preserving the U.S. military edge is key to maintaining the U.S. position in Asia. Sun Tzu Explains China's Shaping Operations in the South China Sea. With the incoming administration likely to grapple early with South China Sea issues, the CSIS Southeast Asia Program, directed by Dr. Amy Searight, worked in collaboration with other Asia colleagues at CSISDr. Less sexy but no less important is a forthcoming arrangement by which Vietnam will allow the United States military to preposition supplies and equipment in Da Nang on the central coast. Figure 3 highlights the influenced areas. Strategic Landscape of the South China Sea: While geopolitics indicates geographical relations with politics, there is another importance which is strategic. The United States calls this treaty the Law of the Sea Convention.. Should they be neutral, China may lord over the southern reaches of the South China Sea from military bases on its newly created and expanded islands in the Spratlys. The two major power of the world i.e. Its strategic economic importance and its geographic location at the confluence of several spheres of influence have rendered it one of the "world's hotspots". Thanks to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), American power projection capabilities will be regularly present in the Philippines for the first time since the early 1990s. All Rights Reserved. Unfortunately, the allies now lack a shared strategic outlook, thus reducing the impetus to overcome recent bilateral political hurdles. Washingtons relationship with Hanoi will make that more palatable. Miguel . In particular, shifting explanations for how the United States will manage Chinas rising power and influencealong with the military-heavy implementation of the rebalancehave exacerbated suspicions that Washington seeks to contain Beijings rise. Without the southern American presence, Chinese forces could more easily divide American forces east and west in the event of a crisis, more easily defend territorial claims or intimidate Malaysia and Indonesia, and more easily threaten maritime and air traffic crisscrossing the South China Sea. Last year, the construction projects covered 72 acres. In the near term, this could lead to sales of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment as well as patrol boats to allow Hanoi to better keep an eye on goings-on in the western South China Sea. A new arrangement for U.S. naval access to Cam Ranh Bay may well be in the offing. How that competition will evolve remains to be seen, but the very fact of the contest should be understood as a reversal of fortune for China. The South China Sea, or South East Asian Sea, is a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean.It is bounded in the north by the shores of South China (hence the name), in the west by the Indochinese Peninsula, in the east by the islands of Taiwan and northwestern Philippines (mainly Luzon, Mindoro and Palawan), and in the south by Borneo, eastern Sumatra and the Bangka Belitung Islands . The new administration should provide authoritative explanations of these operations and not alter their schedule in response to Chinese pressure. Inconsistent messaging and policiesincluding on freedom of navigation and routine presence operationshave also led to confusion in the region. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. In this article, let us look at the strategic importance of the South China Sea, History of the South China Sea Dispute, countries involved, causes, impacts, India's stand on the dispute and the way forward for the UPSC IAS Examination. Chinas militarization and territorial expansion in the South China Sea is illegal and dangerous, Vice President Pence said at the East Asia Summit last year. 2014 The United States and the Philippines sign an enhanced defense pact, strengthening the U.S.-Filipino relationship. Such access would complement the renewed U.S. presence in the Philippines; facilitate a regular American presence in the western part of the South China Sea; enable the United States to more easily defendor seal upthe Malacca Strait; and, it should be noted, put American forces within striking distance of major Chinese bases on Hainan, including port facilities that host Chinas ballistic missile submarines. In the contemporary era, Taiwan remains geographically at the intersection of most of East Asia's danger points. With a new Southeast Asian strategic alignment taking shape as described, geography makes Indonesia and Malaysiaespecially due to its Sabah and Sarawak states on Borneothe regions key swing states. Navy P-8s are now regularly deploying to Singapore and, although without regular access, they have conducted patrols from Malaysia as well. This puts more pressure on Washington to intervene and U.S. allies and partners in Asia are watching carefully and drawing conclusions about U.S. commitment and staying power in the region. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. "American aircraft, this is the PLA air force. Yet, due to Turkey's strategic importance, the US cannot afford to affront Mr. Erdogan, who carries a peculiar . If China can exert complete control over the region, using predominantly the maritime domain, it can build a significant strategic sphere of influence and power. With Burma internationally isolated for much of the past three decades, Beijing invested heavily in that countrys leadership. The United States has been less successful in supporting local partners as they resist Chinese coercion. It will always have an eye on the need to protect itself against attack from the sea, but there's much more to China's vulnerability than potential invasion or bombardment. The islands are important, however, for strategic and political reasons. Enduring U.S. interestsfreedom of navigation and overflight, support for the rules-based international order, and the peaceful resolution of disputesare at risk in the region. More than half of the world's fishing vessels are in the South China Sea, and millions of people depend on these waters for their food and livelihoods. In addition to conventional concerns about territorial defense, the South China Sea is also important for China because of its nationalist claims to all of the tiny land . February 27, 2023. MANILA - Major powers are wading deeper into the South China Sea in a series of moves that promise to rile China while answering US calls for like-minded nations to counter jointly Beijing's rising assertiveness in the crucial and contested maritime area. The area is globally important for a few reasons. The Strategic Importance of the South China Sea (With reference to the geopolitical, economic, and military aspects) South China Sea is known as one of the most significant and dangerous cluster of Islands in the contemporary world. That should, of course, remain the goal, but Washington must recognize that Thailand is in the midst of a decade-long political crisis, which is unlikely to be resolved until after King Bhumibols passing and the royal succession is completed. Brunei's statement seems to present a unified front with the Philippines and Vietnam, in preparation for its ASEAN chairmanship in 2021, where ASEAN and China hope to finalise the formulation of the code of conduct to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. The South China Sea is one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. China has shown the most considerable increase in projection of power from all the states surrounding the SCS. China's strategic reach into the South China Sea has obvious and profound implications for three sets of international actors: (1) the littoral Southeast Asian states (Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and the Philippines); (2) major maritime countries heavily dependent on the sea lanes through the South China Sea (including Japan, Korea, and It remains entirely plausible that any Chinese strategy could have a long term goal of possessing the power to deny US or western warships access to the SCS, with China largely laying claim to most of the area as it's own waters. The strategic value of the alliance remains high, according to theCongressional Research Service: *** U.S. Stay Connected! Those bases may be vulnerable, but before and at the outbreak of hostilities, they will allow China to project power deep into maritime Southeast Asia, to threaten commercial and military passage through the sea, and to impose and enforce an air defense identification zone. China sought access to natural resources, to political influence and to a strategic maritime position in the Bay of Bengal. We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. April 26, 2016 There is widespread interest in the rising tensions over the waters east of China. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the South China Sea dispute and to analyze why the dispute has yet to escalate, as well as the strategic importance of the South China Sea dispute to international trade. Seventh Fleet transits regularly between the Pacific and Indian Oceans (including the Bay of Bengal). Rival countries have wrangled over territory in the South China Sea for centuries, but tension has steadily increased in recent years. The Thai people are lurching towards a new political arrangement, a process that Thais have to see through for themselves. As building of military facilities continued in 2015, the US explicitly announced its opposition to these constructions and tasked surveillance assets to conduct over flights in the SCS and significantly raised tensions. 2023 Center for Strategic & International Studies. Instead, perceptions of weakness may encourage leaders in Beijing to embrace more assertive behavior. The United States has been largely successful at preserving its own freedom of action and deterring outright Chinese aggression in the South China Sea through routine presence operations. These islands are large enough for military runways and well as SAM installations. U.S. responses to Chinas South China Sea activities have been insufficient to alter Chinas behavior and have fed the narrative that China is pushing the United States out of the region. This new strategic map of Southeast Asia actually began to take shape during the Bush administration, whichinitially launchedthe effort to move beyond Americas traditional hub-and-spokes alliance model in the Asia-Pacific. This button displays the currently selected search type. In October 2020, Hong Kong's air traffic control denied a Taiwanese flight access to Pratas Island, a Taiwan-occupied feature in the South China Sea. African community leaders take home lessons from U.S. It is a rich source of hydrocarbons and natural resources. As the pivot of global economy continues to move east it is highly likely that 21st century geopolitics will continue to revolve around Asia and the SCS. In 1995, the Philippines discovered that China had occupied and militarized an atoll (Mischief Reef) well within the Philippines EEZ and within maritime territory claimed by Manila. The Korean War produced formal defense treaties with each of these countries plus a new, permanent military presence in South Korea. Close allies such as Australia and Japan have a great deal to offer in terms of capability and capacity, and should be encouraged to do more. Current developments in the South China Sea must be understood against the backdrop of recent history. in the northeast, the South China Sea is one of the most important trade routes in the world. The United States can do more to leverage its alliances in Asia to raise the costs of Chinese efforts to undermine the regional order. A U.S. Navy crewman aboard a P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft views a computer screen purportedly showing Chinese construction on the reclaimed land of Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in this still image from video provided by the United States Navy May 21, 2015. That included nearly 40 percent of Chinas total trade and 90 percent of petroleum imports by China, Japan, and South Korea and nearly 6 percent of total U.S. trade. The most important and least tangible stake in the South China Sea concerns the preservation (or not) of a regional rules-based order supported by U.S. power. By the mid-1990s, relations with Vietnam had begun a rapidly improvement. The Balloon Incident and Evolution of Espionage. This segment will address American interests. This is the first of three short essays examining the South China Sea as a first order strategic problem for the United States. In addition to far flung island territories (formerly occupied by Japan) in the South Pacific, the United States had a substantial military garrison in Japan and close ties with South Korea and the Philippines a former colony. Vietnam's coastline bordering the South China Sea is over 3,000 kilometers long. In particular Chinas maritime law enforcement in the disputed islands and waters has disrupted regional stability; causing tensions between Vietnam after a clash between Chinese patrol boats and Vietnamese oil exploration vessels. In particular, Chinas growing assertiveness over sovereignty and maritime rights in the South China Sea could be assessed as a serious challenge to the status quo in the region. U.S. policy in the South China Sea has been overly reliant on military options, which may not always be the most effective response. The strategically important South China Sea is an increasingly prominent stage for the spiraling tensions . The increasing activity of Beijing in the South China Sea, Consequences of US-China rivalry in Indo-Pacific and beyond, Balancing the giants: Australia between China and US. In 2016, they carried fully one-third of global shipping with an estimated value of $3.4 trillion. As the new administration sets out to revamp U.S. strategy in the South China Sea, it should keep the following guidelines in mind: Although Chinese cooperation is necessary to address some regional and global issuessuch as North Koreas belligerent behavior and climate changethe United States should not be held hostage by concerns that a more robust deterrence strategy will thwart bilateral cooperation. Due to the strategic importance of the area, China will continue to establish a maritime power in the SCS as the most dominant player among states in the region. The United States now has the opportunity to secure for another generation the peace that has held in Asia for nearly four decades now. China, of course, has important strengths in Burma. Vietnam and the Philippines have also attempted to form a strategic alliance with Japan in their struggle with China in the SCS. America has formal defense/security alliances with five Asian countries: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia. Cobra Gold, hosted by Thailand and led by the United States, is the largest annual multilateral military exercise in Asia. Moving forward, freedom of navigation and routine presence operations should be executed on a regular basis to demonstrate U.S. resolve to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows. China has shown it is willing to accept substantial risk to achieve its ends, and has engaged in outright coercion against weaker neighbors like the Philippines and Vietnam. Although ultimately unsuccessful in Vietnam, America emerged in a surprisingly advantageous strategic position in Southeast Asia with alliances intact with Thailand and the Philippines and friendly ties with Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Improved governance will lead to stronger economies over the long term and dampen the influence of Chinese dirty money. U.S. interests in the South China Sea fall into three broad categories including: (1) Economic interests tied to the sea-lanes; (2) Defense ties with allies and other security partners; and (3) Implications for the global balance of power and influence. Because of its location, this sea is extremely strategic because it connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans (Strait of Malacca). "First, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese SSBN [nuclear ballistic missile submarine], which needs to enter west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear . Tackling these issues will be tricky for the United States, as many of the elites that benefit from corruption will be those with whom Washington must work to deepen ties, but this is a long-term effort worth pursuing. multifaceted fiscal and strategic benefits, acting as a magnet for the regional as well as . It is unlikely that any states in the region possess the wealth and power to oppose this, although there is always a realistic possibility that they may receive backing from the USA if it is in their interests. In my mind, this leads to 3 key questions to base any form of analysis from: In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage. In addition, this thesis intends to propose a solution to the dispute by pulling from a variety of sources. The strategic landscape of the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia in the early 1990s was remarkably benign with optimism in full flower. The new administration should issue clear and consistent strategic messages, since inconsistent articulation of the objectives of the rebalance strategy has caused confusion in China and amongst U.S. allies and partners. China, too, considers control of these waters to be of high strategic importance. China, Russia and the Munich Security Conference. More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the SCS amounting to around $5 trillion. Since 2014, China has stepped up the construction of artificial islands over the disputed Spratlys and Paracels in the SCS, causing an escalation of tensions, upsetting stability. As sovereignty over the SCS involves Chinas economic, energy and national security interests it is highly likely that the increased projection of maritime power will continue. Ironically, the United States is drawing closer to communist Vietnam, in which human rights are serially abused, while growing apart from a major Vietnam War ally, largely due to concerns over democratic backsliding. 2013 The Philippines challenges Chinas claims of historic rights and other actions in an arbitration case under the Law of the Sea Convention. through South China Sea Port is 1400 kms long. The South China Sea is one of the most important trade pathways in the world. Almost all the East Asian countries are dependent on this sea. Aung San Suu Kyi has no interest in antagonizing Chinawhich shares a border with Burma and is a major source of foreign investmentbut nor can she afford to alienate the United States or India. Even then, the countrys division between royalists and red-shirts will likely endure. What is more important from a strategic viewpoint, however, is that global energy projections that the EIA issues in the International Energy Outlook, issued in October 2021, make it clear that China and Asia will have a sharply growing dependence on MENA and Gulf petroleum exports that may well extend through 2050. The United States has formally objected to Chinas South China Sea maritime claims. More importantly, it also covers the most crucial energy routes for East Asian countries to transport oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. China has become increasingly assertive in the region, and regional powers from Japan to Singapore have become alarmed at China's behavior. And thus a new strategic map of Asia begins to emerge. Chinas claims over the legal status and maritime rights of the 9 dash line remain ambiguous and outside of UN recognised EEZ claims. Chinas military modernization has included structural reforms establishing a Joint Operations Command and five new theatre commands (Northern, Eastern, Southern, Western and Central). Importantly, the countries of maritime Southeast Asia are not aligning only with the United States, but with a grouping of external states concerned with the nature of Chinas rise. The global focus of economic power has traditionally been centred over the west with the UK and the USA as the key contributors; however in recent years, this has shifted east (see Figure 1), with the main reason for this being rapid urbanization in developing countries, in particular China. The power politics, military interests created the South China Sea more important. China has steadily built capabilities and infrastructure, most notably military facilities on artificial islands, that enable greater control of the South China Sea. If Chinese coercion goes unchallenged by the United States, it will send a dangerous signal about the strength of the U.S. alliance system and lessen the appeal of the United States as a security partner. The United States has several enduring advantages that make regional states continue to seek it out as the security partner of choice, including the worlds best military, high favorability ratings in most local populations, and a less threatening foreign policy than that of China. Notably, the paper identified Malaysia's maritime claims in the South China Sea as its top security concern. Chinas island outposts will increase this advantage as Chinese aircraft, ships, and paramilitary vessels will be able to rest and resupply in the southern portion of the South China Sea. During the George W. Bush administration, U.S. forces in the Philippines were focused primarily on aiding the Philippine military in its counterterror fight. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling efforts during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and April 2015 Nepal earthquake., The U.S.-Thai alliance has also served as a platform for important training exercises. It is highly likely that China will continue to upset regional stability in the SCS to expand its own sphere of influence. The USSJohn C. Stennistied up there for a few days in April. As maritime security such as safety and freedom of . The Obama administrations decision to lift the decades-old arms embargo on Vietnam is instrumental here. The lifting of the arms embargo also opens the door to other forms of U.S.-Vietnam security cooperation. The U.S. To that end, the region is . The United States needs to maintain a difficult balancing act, supporting the democratic aspirations of the Thai people while remaining a security and economic partner of choice for the elites and armed forces. India will lose its current freedom of access into the South China Sea and much of Southeast Asia. 5 min. India has likewise pursued deeper defense ties with Vietnam, and Indian warships just made port calls at Cam Ranh Bay and Subic Bay while en route to trilateral naval exercises with the United States and Japan in the Western Pacific. In 2010, the US declared its freedom of navigation in the SCS to be a national interest in response to Chinas increasingly assertive posture. But addressing the risks of its near seas means tackling the time-consuming and costly project of building, training and deploying a stronger blue-water navy while also establishing a greater . In a meeting attended by the foreign ministers of 26 nations from the broader region, Clinton simply asserted that the South China Sea was subject to multiple territorial claims and a multinational mechanism should be established to find a peaceful diplomatic solution.
